It’s Oscar time! Below you can find my picks for each category in the grand tradition of critics’ picks: who I think will win and who I think should win. I’ve done this exercise every year for three years now, but this is my first go as a true-blue critic. For everyone out there who read at least one of my reviews, I truly appreciate it, and I hope you stick around for my upcoming first full year of reviews. To the picks!
Best Picture
BELFAST
Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik and Tamar Thomas, Producers
CODA
Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi and Patrick Wachsberger, Producers
DON’T LOOK UP
Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers
DRIVE MY CAR
Teruhisa Yamamoto, Producer
DUNE
Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve and Cale Boyter, Producers
KING RICHARD
Tim White, Trevor White and Will Smith, Producers
LICORICE PIZZA
Sara Murphy, Adam Somner and Paul Thomas Anderson, Producers
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Guillermo del Toro, J. Miles Dale and Bradley Cooper, Producers
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian, Emile Sherman, Iain Canning and Roger Frappier, Producers
WEST SIDE STORY
Steven Spielberg and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
What Will Win: CODA. It’s a freight train right now, mostly on the back of the Academy’s preferential voting system. Voters rank all the Best Picture nominees from first to worst, and films get weighted points based on where they fall. CODA is a very nice movie that made a whole lot of people feel good, and it’s going to end up highish on almost every ballot. The Power of the Dog, on the other hand, is a slow burn anti-western, and although it’s extremely impressive, plenty of voters probably threw their hands up, exclaimed boredom, and tapped out.
What Should Win: Dune. For decades, the film industry has held up Dune as the classic example of an unadaptable property. Denis Villenueve proved them all wrong. It remains to be seen whether Dune will follow in Lord of the Rings’ footsteps and receive its deserved above-the-line accolades with subsequent entries, but if it were my choice, I wouldn’t wait.
Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem in BEING THE RICARDOS
Benedict Cumberbatch in THE POWER OF THE DOG
Andrew Garfield in TICK, TICK…BOOM!
Will Smith in KING RICHARD
Denzel Washington in THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Who Will Win: Smith. He’s been campaigning for months, and it’s about to pay off. Am I mad about it? Absolutely not! Sure, I wasn’t quite as high on King Richard as most, the level of craft was really high, and Smith committed to the role in ways he hasn’t before. Give him his Oscar already.
Who Should Win: Cumberbatch. Although on paper his Power of the Dog character seems like just another in the long line of salty intellectual roles for which he’s become known, Cumberbatch is doing a lot more under the surface than usual, and it’s a major reason why the simmering tension of the movie works.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Ciarán Hinds in BELFAST
Troy Kotsur in CODA
Jesse Plemons in THE POWER OF THE DOG
J.K. Simmons in BEING THE RICARDOS
Kodi Smit-McPhee in THE POWER OF THE DOG
Who Will Win: Kotsur. There’s a few things working in Kotsur’s favor: he’s been grinding with bit parts in the industry for a long time, CODA’s experiencing a big surge as this year’s feel-good pick, and, most importantly, he’s really good as a gruff, deaf fisherman dad with a big ole heart.
Who Should Win: Smit-McPhee. Smit-McPhee’s character completely evolves through the course of the film, and it’s a master class in a making a million tiny decisions that turn into a bigtime performance.
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessica Chastain in THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Olivia Colman in THE LOST DAUGHTER
Penélope Cruz in PARALLEL MOTHERS
Nicole Kidman in BEING THE RICARDOS
Kristen Stewart in SPENCER
Who Will Win: Chastain. Like Will Smith, Chastain’s been campaigning hard, and it’ll probably get her the win, too. People are dying to give her an Oscar, and why not for a transformational performance to become Tammy Faye.
Who Should Win: Stewart. She fully committed to inhabiting Princess Diana, an extremely risky proposition given Diana’s hallowed place in the culture, and she pulled it off, accent and all.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Jessie Buckley in THE LOST DAUGHTER
Ariana DeBose in WEST SIDE STORY
Judi Dench in BELFAST
Kirsten Dunst in THE POWER OF THE DOG
Aunjanue Ellis in KING RICHARD
Who Will Win: DeBose. She’s almost certainly going to win for the same role Rita Moreno so brilliantly performed and won the Oscar for 60 years ago, and it’s hard to argue otherwise. It’s likely the only win for West Side Story, but it’s a deserving one.
Who Should Win: Dunst. Dunst always bring a delicate complexity to her roles, and this one’s no different. Couple that with how well she plays off Cumberbatch’s bullying, and you’ve got a powerful portrayal of loneliness and anxiety.
Animated Feature Film
ENCANTO
Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino and Clark Spencer
FLEE
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
LUCA
Enrico Casarosa and Andrea Warren
THE MITCHELLS VS. THE MACHINES
Mike Rianda, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Kurt Albrecht
RAYA AND THE LAST DRAGON
Don Hall, Carlos López Estrada, Osnat Shurer and Peter Del Vecho
What Will Win: Encanto. Unlike some of its predecessors in the Disney Animation space, Encanto took a while to catch on. But once it landed on Disney+, it became an absolute juggernaut. Sure, the music is catchy and wonderful, but don’t sleep on the breathtaking animation and the important underlying themes of dealing with grief and familial expectations.
What Should Win: Encanto. I have a big soft spot for Mitchells vs. the Machines, but Encanto’s special mix is too good to pass up.
Cinematography
DUNE
Greig Fraser
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Dan Laustsen
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Ari Wegner
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Bruno Delbonnel
WEST SIDE STORY
Janusz Kaminski
What Will Win: Dune. Here’s where we start acknowledging Dune, an absolute triumph that will unfortunately have to settle for a bunch of below-the-line wins. It’s baffling how Denis Villenueve wasn’t even nominated for a category which he should win (Best Director), but here we are. The world he created is so engrossing, so beautiful, so gripping, and that’s mainly due to the stunning technical achievements on display, with cinematography at the top.
What Should Win: Dune.
Costume Design
CRUELLA
Jenny Beavan
CYRANO
Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran
DUNE
Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Luis Sequeira
WEST SIDE STORY
Paul Tazewell
What Will Win: Cruella. Most of Cruella is perfectly fine, but the costume design is on another level, both in technical skill and sheer volume. Whatever Cruella’s drawbacks, every scene is chock full of fun and interesting designs.
What Should Win: Cruella.
Directing
BELFAST
Kenneth Branagh
DRIVE MY CAR
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
LICORICE PIZZA
Paul Thomas Anderson
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Jane Campion
WEST SIDE STORY
Steven Spielberg
Who Will Win: Campion. The Power of the Dog is an outstanding artistic achievement across the board, and Campion, who’s been one of the greatest living filmmakers for decades now, deserves her recognition.
Who Should Win: Campion.
Documentary (Feature)
ASCENSION
Jessica Kingdon, Kira Simon-Kennedy and Nathan Truesdell
ATTICA
Stanley Nelson and Traci A. Curry
FLEE
Jonas Poher Rasmussen, Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen and Charlotte De La Gournerie
SUMMER OF SOUL (…OR, WHEN THE REVOLUTION COULD NOT BE TELEVISED)
Ahmir “Questlove” Thompson, Joseph Patel, Robert Fyvolent and David Dinerstein
WRITING WITH FIRE
Rintu Thomas and Sushmit Ghosh
What Will Win: Summer of Soul. It’s a very traditional archival footage-and-interview-based documentary, but that’s a good thing, because the footage of the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival is incredible. It recaptures an essential touchstone in black history, and it’s great to see the footage so lovingly restored and presented.
What Should Win: Summer of Soul.
Documentary (Short Subject)
AUDIBLE
Matt Ogens and Geoff McLean
LEAD ME HOME
Pedro Kos and Jon Shenk
THE QUEEN OF BASKETBALL
Ben Proudfoot
THREE SONGS FOR BENAZIR
Elizabeth Mirzaei and Gulistan Mirzaei
WHEN WE WERE BULLIES
Jay Rosenblatt
What Will Win: The Queen of Basketball.
What Should Win: I’m abstaining from all the short categories, as I didn’t get a chance to see them all. I promise to do better next year!
Film Editing
DON’T LOOK UP
Hank Corwin
DUNE
Joe Walker
KING RICHARD
Pamela Martin
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Peter Sciberras
TICK, TICK…BOOM!
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum
What Will Win: Dune. This movie could have, and maybe should have, been a mess, but it remained cohesive throughout, held together with some splendid editing.
What Should Win: Dune.
International Feature Film
DRIVE MY CAR
Japan
FLEE
Denmark
THE HAND OF GOD
Italy
LUNANA: A YAK IN THE CLASSROOM
Bhutan
THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Norway
What Will Win: Drive My Car. Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s story about terrible grief and the long and arduous journey to cope with it is a triumph. It’s gorgeous and heartbreaking at the same time, and it’s great to see get recognition not only in this category, but also with a deserved Best Picture nomination.
What Should Win: Drive My Car.
Makeup and Hairstyling
COMING 2 AMERICA
Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer
CRUELLA
Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon
DUNE
Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr
THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh
HOUSE OF GUCCI
Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras
What Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Chastain’s campaign is fundamentally centered on her physical transformation into Tammy Faye, and that will likely push the votes toward the craft people who made it happen. Not undeserved, for sure, but it’s basically the only above-average part of the movie.
What Should Win: House of Gucci. Why not? I loved this movie, and I would throw it a bone for the one nomination it got. It’s not without merit, either, as the Gucci-ness of it all doesn’t quite work without some stellar makeup and hairstyling. Plus, Jared Leto’s transformation into Paulo Gucci is right up there with Chastain’s Tammy Faye.
Music (Original Score)
DON’T LOOK UP
Nicholas Britell
DUNE
Hans Zimmer
ENCANTO
Germaine Franco
PARALLEL MOTHERS
Alberto Iglesias
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Jonny Greenwood
What Will Win: Dune. It’s Hans Zimmer, and he literally created instruments to create an ethereal, futuristic atmosphere that so elevated the movie. He’ll get his second Oscar here after his win for The Lion King.
What Should Win: Dune. Honorable Mention to Jonny Greenwood’s score for Spencer, which I would have picked had it been nominated. It’s jazzy/horror vibes matched Diana’s pulsing anxiety perfectly.
Music (Original Song)
“Be Alive” from KING RICHARD
Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
“Dos Oruguitas” from ENCANTO
Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
“Down To Joy” from BELFAST
Music and Lyric by Van Morrison
“No Time To Die” from NO TIME TO DIE
Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
“Somehow You Do” from FOUR GOOD DAYS
Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
What Will Win: “No Time To Die.” It’s a Bond song, which always provides a bit of a boost, and it’s perfectly fine. At least it’s actually part of the movie, unlike the usual contenders in this category.
What Should Win: I’m going off script here and picking “We Don’t Talk About Bruno.” I don’t care that it wasn’t nominated; it was clearly the best song of the year, and the charts back that up. At least they’re performing it.
Production Design
DUNE
Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
NIGHTMARE ALLEY
Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
THE TRAGEDY OF MACBETH
Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
WEST SIDE STORY
Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo
What Will Win: Dune. Need I say more? Not to keep bringing up Lord of the Rings, but there’s really only one comparison for Dune’s world-building.
What Should Win: Dune.
Short Film (Animated)
AFFAIRS OF THE ART
Joanna Quinn and Les Mills
BESTIA
Hugo Covarrubias and Tevo Díaz
BOXBALLET
Anton Dyakov
ROBIN ROBIN
Dan Ojari and Mikey Please
THE WINDSHIELD WIPER
Alberto Mielgo and Leo Sanchez
What Will Win: Robin Robin.
What Should Win: I actually did see Robin Robin, and it was delightful. Not especially groundbreaking, but delightful.
Short Film (Live Action)
ALA KACHUU – TAKE AND RUN
Maria Brendle and Nadine Lüchinger
THE DRESS
Tadeusz Łysiak and Maciej Ślesicki
THE LONG GOODBYE
Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed
ON MY MIND
Martin Strange-Hansen and Kim Magnusson
PLEASE HOLD
K.D. Dávila and Levin Menekse
What Will Win: The Long Goodbye. Riz Ahmed got a lot of love for Sound of Metal, last year, and he’ll get even more here.
What Should Win: Abstain.
Sound
BELFAST
Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather and Niv Adiri
DUNE
Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill and Ron Bartlett
NO TIME TO DIE
Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey and Mark Taylor
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie and Tara Webb
WEST SIDE STORY
Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson and Shawn Murphy
What Will Win: Dune. Wrack em up.
What Should Win: Dune.
Visual Effects
DUNE
Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor and Gerd Nefzer
FREE GUY
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis and Dan Sudick
NO TIME TO DIE
Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner and Chris Corbould
SHANG-CHI AND THE LEGEND OF THE TEN RINGS
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker and Dan Oliver
SPIDER-MAN: NO WAY HOME
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein and Dan Sudick
What Will Win: Dune. One word: sandworm.
What Should Win: Dune.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
CODA
Screenplay by Siân Heder
DRIVE MY CAR
Screenplay by Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe
DUNE
Screenplay by Jon Spaihts and Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth
THE LOST DAUGHTER
Written by Maggie Gyllenhaal
THE POWER OF THE DOG
Written by Jane Campion
What Will Win: CODA. This is way more about CODA’s surge as a Best Picture contender than any particular merits of its screenplay. If it takes home this award, look out for a big CODA night.
What Should Win: The Lost Daughter. I really enjoyed The Lost Daughter, and this is the best place to recognize it. Gyllenhaal deftly works with two timelines and penned a superb and unconventional psychological thriller.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
BELFAST
Written by Kenneth Branagh
DON’T LOOK UP
Screenplay by Adam McKay; Story by Adam McKay & David Sirota
KING RICHARD
Written by Zach Baylin
LICORICE PIZZA
Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
THE WORST PERSON IN THE WORLD
Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
What Will Win: Licorice Pizza. I have a sneaking suspicion the Academy’s going to pick Branagh’s Belfast here, but I’m going with my (hopeful) heart and picking Licorice Pizza. Paul Thomas Anderson is long, long, long overdue for his Oscar, and his vignette-driven ode to 1970s San Fernando Valley is as good a place to remedy that as any.
What Should Win: Licorice Pizza.
